# R133 E05 scientific review

**E05 RESULT: TWO CONDITIONAL MHD FAMILIES RESOLVED; OBSERVATIONAL SELECTION UNRESOLVED.**

Here, “resolved” means that the checked fast and slow model families have been separately constructed and physically tested under explicit conditions. It does not mean that either family has been identified in the observed event, that all conceivable interpretations have been enumerated, or that two physical fronts were observed. The machine-readable observational selection remains **UNRESOLVED / OBSERVATIONALLY INSUFFICIENT**.

FAST and SLOW solutions are separately admissible for different front geometries. The frozen R132 MHD analysis identifies the required discriminator — the local 3-D front-normal tilt. The R133 observations do not constrain that quantity sufficiently to select between the two families.

## What E05 has established

RMO has progressed from incomplete observations to two concrete, physically checked possibilities, identified a measurement that could distinguish them, and tested whether the retained observations provide that measurement. R133 closes this observational test with a positive local brightness result and a specific limit on geometric identifiability.

The local AIA 193 Å aperture is brighter during the EIS exposure than in the early reference under **all 16 retained EIS–AIA registration alternatives, by 2.4–8.5%**. This is a range across registration alternatives and the two retained long AIA exposures inside the EIS interval, **not a confidence interval**. The exact saved range is 2.424716949–8.529579639%. The reference is the first long exposure in the bridge, centred at 14:25:32.839839 UTC; it is not a demonstrated pre-event state. This statement concerns the sampled exposures, not a continuously measured brightness increase throughout every instant of the EIS integration.

Local brightening is supported. A unique local propagating ridge, independent AIA–STEREO correspondence, and a bounded local 3-D front normal are not established. Neither frozen R132 family is observationally excluded. Brightness enhancement alone is not a measurement of compression, propagation speed, a shock, or a wave mode.

## Same local region and time

The fixed E05 EIS constraint is exposure 25 (zero-based index 24), Fe XIII 202 Å rows 334–338 (zero-based), a 2 arcsec slit by approximately 5 arcsec aperture. Its saved shutter interval is **2011-02-16 14:28:40.646484–14:29:25.645943 UTC**. No Doppler or density reduction was repeated or reselected for R133.

The minimal bridge contains 30 AIA 193 Å Level-1 original FITS frames in the requested 14:25:20–14:31:10 UTC window. Their exposure midpoints span 14:25:22.464062–14:31:08.839838 UTC. Four exposures lie inside the EIS interval; two are approximately 2 s long. Short and long exposures were retained separately. The original full-disk files, lossless cutouts, exposure inventory, numerical arrays, calibration recipes and data receipts are included in this update.

The retained STEREO-A EUVI 195 Å originals are `20110216_142030_n4euA.fts`, `20110216_142530_n4euA.fts`, and `20110216_143030_n4euA.fts`. Their spacecraft exposure starts are 14:20:30.007, 14:25:30.007 and 14:30:30.007 UTC, with duration 8.003840 s. Their midpoints are at :34.008920 and ends at :38.010840. No additional EUVI image or other event was introduced during packaging.

## Provenance

| Label | Meaning and E05 application |
|---|---|
| MEASURED | Detector samples, image positions and recorded exposure times; the saved relative EIS centroid is an emission-weighted spectroscopic constraint. AIA image brightness is measured in projection. |
| SOURCE_DERIVED | Exposure normalization, pointing/calibration recipes, EIS timing and coordinate products, saved spectral density reduction, spacecraft ephemeris metadata and the published 371 km/s speed proxy. R133 registration, aperture brightness and image-curve estimates are reductions of observed samples, not direct 3-D measurements. |
| ASSUMED | Aperture/reference and estimator choices, fixed model geometry in R132, illustrative zero-height projection in the STEREO screen, and any unverified physical association. Image-screen thresholds are analysis choices, not measured uncertainty distributions. |
| MODEL_DERIVED | R132 MHD states and separator; hypothetical ray intersections under proposed associations. No hypothetical intersection, selected ridge or zero-height projection becomes an observed E05 normal. |

Published E05 observations retain their existing credit, including Veronig et al. (2011) as recorded in R131. Hinode/EIS, SDO/AIA and STEREO/SECCHI observations, the mission calibration routines, atomic data, Astropy, NumPy, SciPy and other external software retain their individual source records. RMO contributes the conditional admissibility test and this observational comparison; it does not claim ownership of the underlying observations or external methods.

## What remains measurable in projection

The saved images constrain aperture brightness histories and multiple projected brightness-curve positions and tangents under declared processing and registration choices. The initial **1,002 local fits are overlapping registration/ridge alternatives, not separate physical fronts**. A fitted image-curve normal is only a projected geometric descriptor until its association with a propagating front is independently supported.

The retained registration alternatives span an envelope approximately 46.4 by 29.2 arcsec. That envelope and conditional fitting errors are not a calibrated joint observational confidence region. Local ridge identity, unknown absolute roll/registration components, correlated morphology and line-of-sight structure prevent conversion of those fit errors into a finite uncertainty on alpha.

Image-pattern correlation is retained as a brightness-pattern diagnostic. It is not interpreted as front motion, front speed or a front normal. No constant propagation speed or invariant front shape was assumed to bridge the sequence.

## Temporal bridge, filtering and SVD

The primary bridge screening retains 603 estimator cases, 1,885 component alternatives and 367 components touching the registration envelope. They describe overlapping image-analysis alternatives, not independent samples or physical fronts.

Gaussian screens retain sigma values 0, 0.6 and 1.2 arcsec, with exploratory 2.4 and 3.6 arcsec checks. The latter smooth over FWHM scales approximately 5.65 and 8.48 arcsec, comparable to or larger than the EIS aperture. A smoother feature can merge distinct emission structures; it does not establish their common physical identity.

Spatial median checks use 3 by 3 and 5 by 5 pixels separately in each frame. Centred SVD checks retain ranks 1, 2, 3, 5 and 10, both unweighted and with empirical frame-noise scaling. SVD uses information from multiple times; apparent continuity in a low-rank reconstruction is therefore not an independent observation. Rank 1 imposes a common spatial pattern by construction. The median/SVD screens retain 6,014 overlapping component alternatives across 442 selected-frame screens. No filter or rank was selected to produce a preferred MHD family.

All associated numerical records, processing specifications, figures and code are retained. These checks support the stability of the local brightness statement while leaving a unique propagating ridge unestablished. Failure to identify a ridge within the declared screens is not proof that no physical disturbance exists.

## STEREO-A geometry and correspondence

The saved geometry places STEREO-A approximately 86.81 degrees from the Earth/SDO line of sight. This is useful geometric separation, but geometric separation alone is not a physical correspondence.

Solar-centre light-time transfer to the saved SDO reference is about +13.787 s. The approximately +12.904 s local transfer assumes the illustrative zero-height reference and is labelled MODEL_DERIVED under ASSUMED geometry. Exact local correction depends on the still unknown 3-D position. Header timing is not a separately calibrated absolute-clock uncertainty estimate.

The two bracketing EUVI exposures do not overlap the EIS exposure: in the conditional surface-reference transfer, the earlier exposure ends about 169.732 s before EIS starts, and the later one starts about 77.265 s after EIS ends. The new AIA sequence provides near-simultaneous endpoint images, but does not by itself supply the missing out-of-plane evolution between them.

Restricted, source-derived EUVI calibration follows the retained mission-source branches for these exact files. It is not a full independently validated IDL SECCHI_PREP or mission Level-1 release. The saved calibration record, raw and calibrated FITS, source routines and limitations are preserved. STEREO-B is not used as a second local-surface constraint; a high-altitude feature beyond its limb would require a separate justified association.

The epipolar test uses the condition `(E − A) × d · e = 0`, where E and A are observer positions and d and e are candidate sightlines. One- and two-EUVI-pixel gates are declared screening choices, not measured astrometric confidence bounds. At one-pixel gating the nearby early long AIA frames retain 42 and 35 component-pair hypotheses; the nearest short exposure retains none in the declared screen. The later closest AIA frame retains 207, with as many as 30 EUVI alternatives for one AIA component. Counts change with frame and gate. None is an accepted physical tie-point set.

Thus the same local segment is not independently identified in both views at both brackets. No stereoscopic surface normal has been adopted. A matched point alone would also be insufficient to define a surface normal; neighbouring surface constraints are required. Even two endpoint normals would not bound the normal during EIS without an observational bound on intervening evolution or an explicitly conditional temporal model.

## Frozen R132 physical discrimination

R132 retains the measured relative redshift, approximately +16.56 km/s, the source-derived effective electron density, approximately 2.35 × 10^8 cm^-3, and the source-derived 371 km/s speed proxy. Its assumptions include assigning the effective density downstream, assigning the relative centroid to the model velocity jump, upstream rest, downstream temperature approximately 1.585 × 10^6 K, and the saved ideal-MHD closure and geometry. They have not been retuned in R133.

With fixed local radial vector r, tangent t and observer-directed LOS vector l, the saved construction is `n = cos(alpha)t − sin(alpha)r`, `D = 371 cos(alpha) km/s`, `mu = −l·n`, `delta_v_n = d/mu` and `X = D/(D − delta_v_n)`. Speeds, compression, upstream state and fields are MODEL_DERIVED from fixed constraints and geometry, not freely adjustable parameters. The tangential velocity construction lies along `e1 || n × LOS`; its zero LOS projection was checked in R132. That alignment remains ASSUMED.

The fast and slow roots pass the saved conservation, compression, entropy and characteristic criteria. The R132 map, all roots, numerical guard bands and final continuous sign lock remain unchanged. No R132 admissibility calculation was rerun during R133 packaging.

| Conditional geometric information | Frozen R132 implication |
|---|---|
| Supported alpha interval wholly within approximately 40–50 degrees | Excludes the checked slow family under the frozen construction; compatible checked fast solutions must still be present. |
| Supported alpha interval wholly within approximately 55–65 degrees | Excludes the checked fast family under the frozen construction; compatible checked slow solutions must still be present. |
| Field angle alone at the checked 30 or 80 degree cases | Does not select between the two families. |
| No observationally bounded alpha interval, as in R133 | Neither family is observationally excluded. The interval comparison and observationally compatible retained-root existence test cannot be evaluated. |

The separator near **alpha = 54.227 degrees** is a conditional model result, not a measured front angle. The sufficient **45 degrees ± 5 degrees** and **60 degrees ± 5 degrees** planning cases are not universal observational errors. The frozen R132 final lock excludes the competing checked ordinary family even in relevant numerical guard portions of those strips, without relabelling unresolved numerical cells. Its admissible examples establish conditional existence, not that every point in a planning box is physically admissible.

No finite alpha uncertainty, artificial confidence interval or new covariance ellipse is assigned in R133. “Both families remain admissible overall” refers to different allowed model geometries; it does not claim that both exist at the same geometry or that two physical waves were observed.

## Closure criterion

**Current status:** observational selection UNRESOLVED / OBSERVATIONALLY INSUFFICIENT.

**Missing observables:** a uniquely supported local propagating ridge associated with the observationally registered EIS aperture, together with independent out-of-plane geometry of that same local front.

**Minimum additional observation:** temporally compatible, spatially resolved observations that identify that segment and neighbouring surface structure from a second viewpoint, or an equivalent independent local height/front-surface constraint. EIS–imaging registration and ridge position must be bounded observationally. If the independent view does not coincide with EIS, measured evolution must bound transfer to the EIS exposure. Another image of an ambiguous structure is not automatically sufficient.

**Quantitative criterion for RESOLVED:** these observations must yield a bounded interval for the R132 alpha coordinate with registration, localisation, timing, correspondence and out-of-plane/temporal uncertainty included. Compare the entire interval with the frozen admissible-family regions and verify compatible accepted roots of the retained family. The interval must exclude the competing checked family, with any relevant numerical unresolved region handled by the frozen lock or left unresolved. Crossing the separator near 54.227 degrees does not select a family. An assumed dome, height, radial normal or chosen ridge is not an independent resolution.

## Hypothesis and interpretation

The proposed association with one evolving disturbance is retained separately as **WORKING HYPOTHESIS — NOT AN OBSERVATIONAL RESULT**. Local heating, emissivity changes and superposed evolving structures remain alternatives. Neither this hypothesis nor smoothing is used to assign alpha or a shock type.

The physical gain is precise: two conditional MHD possibilities have been checked, their useful geometric discriminator has been identified, and its observability has been tested at the correct local aperture and time. The remaining limitation is now a specified missing measurement rather than an unspecified ambiguity.

**MHD admissibility determines what observational precision is required; observational analysis determines whether that precision is achievable.**

R132 is a frozen inherited baseline. The EIS/AIA-only R133 result and subsequent STEREO and temporal-bridge reviews are preserved as historical stages, including their original status wording. This final note establishes the approved checkpoint interpretation. Packaging verification checks file identity and reconstruction; it is not a new scientific calculation.